Hyderabad, Oct. 28: The hot, dry climate zone of peninsular India has nearly halved over seven decades, with its share shrinking from about 30% to 16% between 1951–1980 and 1991–2020, according to a study by scientists from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune.
Published in MAUSAM, the IMD’s peer-reviewed journal, the study found that much of the region previously classified as hot semi-arid has shifted into the tropical savannah climate zone. The researchers attributed the change primarily to increasing rainfall across southern India.
IMD Climate Study Finds Southern India Becoming Wetter
The researchers mapped India’s climate zones across successive 30-year periods using IMD observations. These classifications consider temperature and rainfall patterns over long periods.
The tropical savannah zone now covers approximately three-quarters of peninsular India, compared with around three-fifths during 1951–1980. The study found that most of the shift occurred during the two latest periods examined, 1981–2010 and 1991–2020.
The trend in southern India contrasts with northwestern India, where the hot semi-arid zone expanded. While daytime and night-time temperatures increased across the country, rainfall rose in southern India even as it declined over the northern plains. The tropical monsoon climate zone also expanded along the west coast, covering coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
However, the long-term shift towards wetter conditions has not prevented severe rainfall shortages during the latest monsoon season described in the report. Under the influence of El Niño, southern India recorded a rainfall deficit of 24.3%. Karnataka received around 30% less rainfall than normal, while Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Telangana recorded deficits ranging from 17% to 24%.
Karnataka declared drought in 177 of its 240 taluks, while the Centre declared drought in parts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, according to the report.
Ananya Karmakar of IMD Pune, the study’s lead author, said the shrinking of the hot, dry zone highlighted a major long-term climate shift, but the region’s rainfall deficit during an El Niño year showed the need to account for seasonal fluctuations as well.
IMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, a co-author of the study, stressed the importance of considering long-term climate trends alongside year-to-year variations. He said seasonal forecasts and advisories for farmers could help communities prepare for both changing climate patterns and unpredictable monsoon conditions.
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