BJP to retain UP with significant reduction in number of seats

New Delhi, Nov. 16: The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to return to power in 2022 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, though with significant reduction in the number of seats that the saffron party is expected to win, as per the latest round of opinion poll of more than 72,000 samples surveyed in the ABP-CVoter-IANS poll between first weeks of October and November.

Other key political players in the state – Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress are not in a position to dislodge the Yogi Adityanath government in 2022, as things stand today.

According to the latest round of opinion polls, the ruling BJP is expected to grab 40.7 per cent of the vote share in the Assembly polls. Notably, the saffron party has continuously maintained its vote share of around 41 per cent in the state; in 2017 Assembly elections the BJP had garnered 41.4 per cent of the votes polled.

As for other the vote share of other key political players in the state, the survey shows that while the vote share of SP is expected to witness a jump of 7.5 per cent from 23.6 per cent in 2017 to 31.1 per cent in 2022, the BSP’s vote share is likely to witness a slump of 7.1 per cent from 22.2 per cent in 2017 to 15.1 per cent in 2022.

The country’s grand old party – Congress, out of power in the state since 1989, is expected to get 8.9 per cent of the votes. It had secured 6.3 per cent votes in 2017.

In terms of number of seats, as per the survey data, BJP and its allies are projected to grab seats in a range of 213 to 221 seats in 2022 Assembly polls. Though BJP and its alliance partners will witness a dip of almost 100 seats from the figure of 325 seats they had won in 2017, the coalition is expected to cross the majority figure comfortably.

The total strength of Uttar Pradesh Assembly is 403 seats. The SP and its alliance partners, emerging as key challenger to the saffron party are expected to win 152 to 160 seats this time. The survey further shows that BSP is continuously losing the political ground in the state as the party can secure victory on just 16 to 20 seats. Congress party is likely to grab 6 to 10 seats.

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