Declining Birth Rates In India May Stabilize By 2080

• Declining birth rates and lower TFR highlight India population trends
• IASP says India may reach 1.8–1.9 billion population by 2080

Hyderabad: The Indian Association for the Study of Population has said that India’s population is likely to stabilize by 2080. The organisation noted that declining birth rates and a steady fall in the total fertility rate have significantly slowed population growth. It said India may reach around 1.8 to 1.9 billion people by that period. Officials added that this trend reflects major social and educational changes across the country.

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IASP General Secretary Anil Chandran said the total fertility rate in India was 3.5 in 2000. He explained that it has now fallen to 2.1. He stated that this drop has led to a decline in the number of births. He said, “India’s population is likely to reach 1.8-1.9 billion by 2080 and remain stable. Recent studies also estimate that the country’s population will be less than 2 billion. The main reason for the decline in fertility is the increase in development and education levels. Especially as women become literate, smaller families are being formed.”

He also said the growing awareness among people about population growth has helped reduce birth numbers. However, he noted that some families of illiterate women still have three or more children. He explained that educated families generally have between 1.5 and 1.8 children. He said this shift has helped reduce fertility levels across many states.

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Chandran pointed to Kerala as an example of long term change. He said the state had a total fertility rate of 2.1 between 1987 and 1989. He added that it has now come down to 1.5. He said West Bengal has shown a similar trend. According to data from the Sample Registration System, its rate dropped from 1.7 in 2013 to 1.3 in 2023. With this, the state now has the lowest total fertility rate in the country. He also said Tamil Nadu and Delhi have among the lowest levels.

He added that India is also seeing a rise in life expectancy. He said health care measures have helped people live longer even as fewer children are being born. Therefore, he said these trends show a major shift in India’s population structure. He noted that the fall in birth rates has now become a central factor in long term forecasts.

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