Hyderabad, Oct. 1 (Maxim News) : India could face below-normal rainfall in October, while temperatures are likely to remain above normal across most parts of the country, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The forecast comes after the 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a significant rainfall deficit.
The country received 759.4 mm of rain between June and September, which was 87% of the long-period average.
The 2026 monsoon was the fourth-driest since 2001 and the 13th-driest since 1901, according to the IMD. The seasonal rainfall was also well below the normal figure of about 868.6 mm.
Rainfall performance varied sharply across regions. East and Northeast India received 1,016.3 mm, the lowest seasonal rainfall recorded there since 1901. The South Peninsula received 542 mm, making it the second-lowest since 2001.
The monsoon core zone recorded 779.9 mm. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 recorded deficient rainfall, while 18 received normal rainfall. Odisha was the only subdivision to record above-normal rainfall, according to the supplied IMD data.
October Rainfall Outlook Points to More Dry Weather
The monthly rainfall pattern was uneven during the southwest monsoon. June recorded 65% of normal rainfall, while July received 101%. Rainfall fell to 84% of normal in August before recovering to 92% in September.
The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall across India in October. It expects most parts of the country to receive below-normal rainfall during the October to December period, although some areas of northwest India and the southern peninsula could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
The outlook also points to warmer conditions. During October, daytime maximum temperatures and nighttime minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most parts of India, with the exception of northeast India.
The IMD has linked the broader seasonal outlook to evolving El Niño conditions in the Pacific. According to the latest reporting, El Niño is expected to peak in November before gradually weakening.
For the October to December period, parts of the southern peninsula, including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka, are expected to receive relatively better rainfall conditions.
Telangana, however, is expected to remain on the drier side in the October outlook cited in the source material. The state could also see above-normal daytime and nighttime temperatures.
The combination of weaker rainfall and higher temperatures could add pressure on agriculture and water resources, particularly in areas dependent on seasonal rainfall. However, the actual impact will depend on rainfall distribution and shorter-range weather systems during the coming months.
The IMD is expected to issue more detailed forecasts as October progresses. (Maxim News)
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